Quick questions on Demographic change and the one-child legacy explained: H2 China Studies

To understand China's demographic future you must start with the one-child policy, introduced around 1979 to 1980 as a drastic measure to curb population growth, which the leadership feared would overwhelm development. The policy limited most urban couples to a single child, with various exceptions (for example for rural families and ethnic minorities), and was enforced through a mix of incentives and coercion. It sharply reduced the birth rate and is credited by the state with averting hundreds of millions of births. But it also had profound and lasting side effects, and it accelerated a demographic transition that was already underway as the country urbanised and grew richer.

For decades China enjoyed a "demographic dividend": a large and growing working-age population relative to dependents (children and the elderly), which supplied abundant cheap labour and high savings, both crucial to the investment- and export-led growth model. The one-child policy, by reducing the number of children, initially reinforced this favourable ratio. But the same policy guaranteed that the dividend would reverse. As the smaller post-policy generations reached working age and the large earlier generations aged into retirement, the working-age population began to shrink and the proportion of elderly to rise.

The most distinctive feature of China's demographic challenge is captured in the phrase "growing old before growing rich." Earlier-developed economies, such as Japan and those of Western Europe, became wealthy before their populations aged, so they could afford the costs of an old society. China faces ageing at a lower level of per-capita income, meaning it must bear the burden of supporting a large elderly population before it has achieved the wealth to do so comfortably. This raises the stakes of the demographic challenge considerably and links it directly to the urgency of rebalancing and productivity-led growth.

State two long-term consequences of the one-child policy. [4 marks]

Explain why relaxing the one-child policy has not reversed China's low birth rate. [12 marks]

"Demographic change is a more serious threat to China's future than its debt." How far do you agree? [20 marks]